As everyone knows, except those living under rocks, Nord Steam 1 and 2 are gas pipelines that connect Russian gas to Germany that were attacked on Sept 26.
The West has largely accused Russia which makes no sense as it reduces Russia’s leverage over Europe to reduce support for Ukraine.
Pro-Russian voices have accused the US, yet this also makes no sense since the US effectively attacking European infrastructure would threaten the unity of NATO.
Now Russia accuses Britain which is unlikely but possible but again the upside doesn’t outweigh the downside of splintering NATO unity and massive recriminations for a country that’s not too popular in Britain in anycase.
Could Ukraine have done it? They certainly had the motivation to blow the pipeline and remove the temptation dangling in front of Europe that if they threw Ukraine under a bus they could restore gas supply, jobs and warmth to a European winter. The problem with this theory is Ukraine doesn’t have a Baltic seaboard and since March 2022 it doesn’t really have a navy, assuming it could get out of the Black sea via the Bosphorus.
So who blew Nord Stream?
Who has the motive and the means? My money is on Poland. Poland has direct access to the Baltic Sea, is more committed than anyone else to a Ukrainian victory and has committed a greater proportion of its resources to supplying Ukraine. Interestingly enough, just prior to the sabotage of Nord Stream the Baltic Pipeline connecting Norway’s gas fields to Poland was commissioned.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the exploded debris at the bottom of the Baltic Sea turns out to be Soviet era, meaning either the Russians were responsible or someone who has stores of ex-Soviet equipment wants to divert blame to the Russians.
We live in interesting times.